Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, October 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Saturday, October 17

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, October 16	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, October 17	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, October 18	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, October 19	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, October 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130830 SPC AC 130830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

An intense midlevel trough will progress from the Great Lakes to off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. An associated surface low is forecast to develop from the lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast while a trailing cold front advances through much of the eastern CONUS. A moist and at least marginally unstable air mass is forecast in portions of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon, with thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the front. Vertical shear is expected to be relatively strong, suggesting the potential for isolated severe weather. Level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.

### Days 5 through 8/Saturday through Tuesday

A considerably drier and more stable low-level air mass will persist at many locations over the weekend with non-severe storms possible in portions of FL and the lower-CO Valley. By early next week, there is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move into the western CONUS. In response, a deepening lee trough over the High Plains will lead to increasing moisture return, particularly over the southern Plains by Tuesday. However, no severe weather is expected through that time frame.

..Mead.. 10/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 13: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, October 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, October 15: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, October 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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