Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

• Wednesday, October 14 →

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131252

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI/KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

Southern High Plains through the south-central Plains into the Midwest

Early morning satellite imagery shows a belt of moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest across the central Plains, situated between a slow-moving upper low over the western Great Basin and expansive upper ridging centered over the upper TX/western LA coast. Based on recent mesoanalysis, the strongest portion of this southwesterly flow currently extends from the southern AZ/NM border into south-central CO, colocated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough. Recent surface analysis places a pair of lows just downstream of this stronger flow aloft, one over southeast CO and the other over central KS. A cold front connects these two lows and continues northeastward from the central KS low to another low over northern Lake Michigan. Airmass south of this low is very moist, with upper 60s reaching into south-central KS and low 70s dewpoints reaching up through central OK.

Expectation is for the embedded shortwave trough to progress quickly northeastward today, reaching the central High Plains by late this afternoon before continuing northeastward through the central Plains this evening. As it does, the frontal zone across KS will sharpen and initially southwesterly surface winds will back, becoming more southerly (perhaps even slightly southeasterly) by the late afternoon. Strong heating is anticipated along and south of the front as well, with afternoon temperatures in the low 90s. Any boundary-layer mixing will be offset by continued low-level moisture advection, with afternoon dewpoints likely remaining in the mid to upper 60s along the front in KS and east of the dryline in the eastern TX Panhandle. These conditions are expected to result in airmass destabilization around 21Z. Lapse rates will be not be overly steep, but warm and moist low-levels will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy.

Increasing convergence along the front and dryline within this destabilized and buoyant airmass is forecast to result in convective initiation. The strongest mid-level flow will be displaced north and west of the frontal zone, but mid-level flow along and south of the front should still be strong enough to support moderate deep-layer vertical shear and the potential for an initially supercellular storm mode. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are expected to be the primary hazards. A few gusts from 65 to 75 mph are possible. Tornado potential will remain low, but ample low-level moisture coupled with an increase in low-level shear/SRH by early evening could result in a tornado or two near the front. Modest upscale growth will be possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and western/southern IL. However, the severe threat should become more isolated with time given increasing nocturnal stabilization and widespread storm interactions.

Parts of western/central NY

A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will continue to move quickly eastward through eastern Ontario through the Northeast today. An attendant surface low will eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. Increasing low-level moisture and afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s will promote modest buoyancy, although clouds/precipitation and relatively warm low to mid-level temperatures result in some uncertainty regarding airmass destabilization.

Increasing deep-layer westerly flow (particularly around 850 mb) amid low-level southwesterlies will result in notably curved low-level hodographs. As a result, any sustained surface-based storms could organize, supporting a threat for localized wind damage and possibly a brief tornado. Modest buoyancy is expected to limit the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe potential.

..Mosier/Wendt.. 10/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 13

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, October 17

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, October 18

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, October 19

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, October 20

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook