Severe Weather Outlook

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• ← Tuesday, October 13
• Thursday, October 15 →

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130515

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU…AND IN PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

An upper low centered near the Four Corners Wednesday morning is forecast to gradually weaken while progressing into the central High Plains by early Thursday. Within the southeast periphery of the low, a vorticity maximum is expected to advance from the southern Rockies into the central High Plains in tandem with a 50-60 kt jet streak in the mid levels. Elsewhere, a series of vorticity maxima (some of convective origin) are forecast to translate from the mid-MS Valley to the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move south through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS Valleys, and into portions of the southern Plains. The western segment of the front over the southern Plains may eventually stall and perhaps retreat north Wednesday night in response to falling pressures over the central Plains.

### Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, along and ahead of the cold front, aided by modest warm advection and moisture transport along a weakening nocturnal low-level jet. The presence of a seasonably moist (e.g., dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s F) and at least marginally unstable air mass will likely support the continuation of showers and thunderstorms through the day in some areas. On the southern fringe of any more persistent clouds and precipitation, stronger heating may contribute to corridors of moderate instability by afternoon where MLCAPE may approach 1500-2000 J/kg. That destabilization process will coincide with strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent preceding the southern Rockies disturbance, yielding an environment supportive of isolated strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with the best potential for a few occurrences of severe hail being in southwest TX.

### Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic

Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late afternoon ahead of the cold front. Aided by forcing for ascent preceding the series of vorticity maxima approaching from the west, thunderstorms are expected to develop and subsequently increase in areal coverage along the front at that time. Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts into evening.

..Mead.. 10/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 13

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, October 17

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, October 18

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, October 19

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, October 20

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook