Severe Weather Outlook

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• ← Wednesday, October 14
• Friday, October 16 →

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe storms appear possible over portions of the mid- Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon through night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 130708

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe storms appear possible over portions of the mid- Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon through night.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough over SK/MB Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while translating into the Great Lakes late Thursday night/early Friday. Ahead of that feature, an upper low will weaken into an increasingly sheared open wave while accelerating from the central High Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along a poleward-advancing warm front from central or eastern KS through the mid-MS and OH Valleys to the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile a trailing cold front will surge south through much of the southern Plains and into the lower-MS Valley.

### Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Thursday from portions of the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley within a zone of warm-air and moisture advection preceding the surface low. A subset of the early-day storms may persist through the day with associated cloud cover limiting daytime heating and resultant air mass destabilization in those areas. Where cloud breaks can occur, stronger diabatic heating coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s may contribute to a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon, which would become a preferred zone of diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development.

Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent are forecast to steadily strengthen from Thursday afternoon through night, leading to the potential for a fast-moving complex of storms to traverse the region with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 10/13/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 13

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, October 17

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Sunday, October 18

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Monday, October 19

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Tuesday, October 20

ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook