Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, August 16

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are possible within the Mid-Atlantic and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141938

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC…AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are possible within the Mid-Atlantic and in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

Mid-Atlantic

Embedded within broad northwesterly flow aloft, a mid-level shortwave trough will promote the development of a surface trough/modest low within the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. This trough is expected to extend southward into the Blue Ridge during the afternoon. Some convection will be possible in the northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday morning. Outflow/differential heating from this activity will combine with the surface trough to promote scattered storm development during the afternoon. Mid 70s dewpoints and temperatures reaching the 90s F in some locations will lead to moderate/strong destabilization during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow should support at least modestly organized storms which could eventually evolve into one or more clusters. Wind damage will be possible with this activity.

Central High Plains

A surface high behind a cold front will keep easterly surface winds into the higher terrain of the central Rockies. Low-level moisture may be a touch higher than previous days (perhaps low 60s F) along with warmer surface temperatures. Effective shear from the Front Range into southeast Wyoming will be 35-40 kt with long hodographs. Given the potential for a few supercells during the afternoon, severe probabilities have been increased in the area with greatest confidence for large hail/severe winds.

Midwest/Ohio Valley

Thunderstorm development is probable along parts of southward-moving cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Even with only weak/modest shear parallel to the front, a southward propagating cluster or two may develop given the frontal motion. The primary uncertainty is where this will occur given lack of stronger convergence along much of the boundary. With steep low-level lapse rates south of the front along with moderate to strong instability, damaging winds would be possible with these storms.

..Wendt.. 08/14/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, August 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, August 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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