Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, August 14

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into the overnight across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, central Plains and Intermountain West.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150059

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…MID-ATLANTIC AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening into the overnight across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, central Plains and Intermountain West.

Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys

The latest water vapor imagery shows a broad anticyclonic flow pattern in place from the Great Plains to the Appalachians. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough appears to be located from south-central Iowa into far northwest Missouri. Ahead of this feature, surface dewpoints across far southern Iowa and northern Missouri are in the upper 70s F. The RAP currently has an east-to-west corridor of strong instability in north-central Missouri, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Along the instability gradient in northern Missouri, low-level flow will increase this evening, fueling the development of numerous thunderstorms. Some RAP forecast soundings near the instability gradient this evening have effective shear in the 25 to 30 knot range with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. This should support a hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. An isolated potential for severe gusts may also develop if any of the cells can remain surface-based. The severe threat is expected to continue into the overnight period.

Mid-Atlantic

West-northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the eastern U.S. At the surface, dewpoints are in the 70s F from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern edge of the stronger instability over eastern Virginia. Near this convection, the WSR-88D VWP at Wakefield has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots which could support a marginal severe threat for another hour or two this evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible.

Central Plains

Southwesterly mid-level flow is currently in place over much of the central U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located from eastern Colorado into central Kansas. Surface dewpoints near the front are from the mid 60s to mid 70s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Along the western edge of the stronger instability, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across eastern Colorado. RAP forecast soundings just ahead of the storms near the Colorado-Kansas state line this evening have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This will support a marginal severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells.

Intermountain West

Water vapor imagery currently shows southwesterly mid-level flow over the Intermountain West with a subtle shortwave trough moving into the region from the southwest. Ahead of this feature, an axis of moderate instability is located from northwestern Arizona into southeast Nevada, along which the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis early this evening. RAP forecast soundings just downstream from the storms early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots along with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km suggesting a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 08/15/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, August 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, August 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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