Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, August 15

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141725

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas.

Synopsis

The upper ridge is expected to broaden and expand westward on Saturday. Modest to regionally moderate flow aloft will be confined to the northern half of the CONUS. A convectively modified surface boundary from the Mid-Atlantic westward into the Midwest and central Plains will be the general focus for convection outside of MCV features moving around the upper ridge.

Midwest/Ohio Valley

An MCV is forecast to be in northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin Saturday morning. This feature will track eastward during the day. Scattered storms are expected near the MCV and along a surface boundary from the southern Great Lakes region into the central Appalachians. Early morning precipitation and cloud cover associated with the MCV is may limit surface heating, but the very moist airmass will not need much heating to destabilize. Damaging winds will be the main threat with a tornado or two possible, particularly near the MCV. Storms may only be organized for short periods given weak lapse rates and shear concentrated in the lower half of the troposphere.

Central High Plains into the Missouri Valley

Another MCV is expected to track eastward through the central Plains into Iowa/Missouri. Given the impacts of the preceding MCV on Friday, it is not clear how much destabilization, and therefore storm coverage will occur. Should afternoon storms develop, the strongest activity will likely be on the southern flank of the MCV from northeast Kansas into northern Missouri. Later in the evening, additional storms are possible along the cold front.

Farther west, flow aloft in the central Rockies will become more westerly. At the surface, continued moist upslope flow will promote scattered to numerous storms by afternoon. Cloud cover may keep temperatures somewhat cool, but steep lapse rates aloft and around 35-40 kt of effective shear near the terrain will support transient supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Storm/outflow interaction is likely with a few clusters propagating eastward with time.

Southern Appalachians into the Piedmont

Strong heating of at least low 70s F dewpoints will promote strong instability by the afternoon. Flow aloft will be weak to modest from the northwest. Though storms may not be very organized, scattered convection within the terrain may move east/southeast with time. One or more clusters may develop leading to localized corridors of wind damage potential.

Central/Northern Minnesota

A cold front will be the focus for potential isolated storm development. Mid-level forcing for ascent will be quite weak and thermodynamic profiles will be marginal. Should storms develop, isolated strong outflow winds would be possible. Severe potential remains too limited for probabilities.

Northeast Oregon into central Idaho

With a subtle shortwave trough moving through during the afternoon, thunderstorms are likely to develop within the Blue Mountains and move northeastward. Modest buoyancy and effective shear will promote a couple of stronger storms. Small hail and gusty outflow winds may occur, but severe potential appears limited.

..Wendt.. 08/14/2026

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, August 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, August 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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